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Shroff believes CY11 to be a negative year for Indian equities

admin — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 01:59:21 +0000

Chartists expect the Nifty to fall below 5,000 levels in the near term, before heading north

Don’t uncork the bubbly yet. If you thought the over 5.5 per cent jump in the Nifty to 5,687 in the past six sessions (till March 28) is an indication of (good) things to come, think again. According to chartists, it’s just a dead cat bounce and the 50-share index could head south.

Ashish Shroff , technical analyst at Ambit Capital, who drew fi rst blood when the Nifty touched 5,400 in January, just as he predicted in December, believes the pullback won’t last for long and the Nifty will tank to 4,780 levels in the
coming quarter. Th at is a good 907 points, or a 19 per cent, drop by .

“As per the Elliott wave, in December 2010, the Nifty completed its fi ve-wave upmove. In January 2011, the Nifty fell more than 10 per cent and retraced the 23.6 per cent retracement of the rise from its low of 2,252 in October 2008 to a high of 6,338 in November 2010. So, in January 2011, the Nifty achieved 5,400 but the index did not complete the bear wave count,” Shroff notes in his report
titled, ‘A storm in the making’. According to the Ambit chartist, the Nifty has completed the ‘Y’ wave and is currently in the ‘X’ bounce wave. However, the index has to head down as per the ‘Z’ down wave. Concurring with Shroff is Vijay Bhambwani of bsplindia.com. “The probability at this point in time is bearish,” he says. “Th e Nifty is still below its 200-day moving average at this point.”

Th ough traders would be looking at going long, given that the Nifty is just 1 point away from breaching its 200-DMA of 5,688, Shroff thinks otherwise: “As long as the Nifty stays below the 200-DMA, it’s better to go short.” Bhambwani adds, “Th e Nifty will just manage to touch it (200-DMA) but will fall below that level.”

“Th e Nifty will just manage to touch it (200-DMA) but will fall below that level.” Shroff believes the index will break down through its short-term support and medium-term support of 5,400 and 5,280 in the coming months. “The bounce back looks more like a bull trap,” he says. “In fact, if the index goes beyond the 200-DMA, the downfall will be much sharper.” However, he advises traders to keep their stop-loss at 5,780, which marks the 50 per cent retracement of the Nifty’s previous fall from 6,338 to 5,127. But what gives credence to Shroff ’s bearish views is the fact that average volumes clocked during the upmove were much lower at around Rs 1 lakh crore compared with the average daily traded volumes of Rs 1.6 lakh crore. Besides, the number of stocks that participated in the rally shows that the rally is not broad-based: just 26 of the 50 stocks pulled up the index. “In fact, of the 26 stocks, only 13 were outperformers,” points out Shroff . Besides, for the fi rst time in eight quarters, the Nifty is headed for a negative close in the fi rst
quarter of 2011 from its close of 6,134 on December 31. Shroff believes CY11 to be a negative year for Indian equities, though the index won’t see the sort of fall it took in 2008.

Market Outlook

admin — Tue, 28 Sep 2010 03:35:47 +0000

We have 6074 as an interim resistance and the 6000-6018 area as support. Nifty Futures positions were pruned by 5% on a day of lack luster volumes

More consolidation

The Nifty did make a new 33 month high but couldn�t really achieve the target of 6100, which seemed to be on the cards going by the solid close seen on Friday.

So we have 6074 as an interim resistance and the 6000-6018 area as support. Nifty Futures positions were pruned by 5% on a day of lack luster volumes.

As the large caps go into a consolidation mode, the mid and the small caps could come to life. But for this to happen, the Nifty needs to keep its head above the 6000 mark.

Among the large cap stocks Hindustan Zinc was well placed.

The FIIs have pumped in $ 18.13 billion (Rs 82,360 crore).This makes it the highest amount, ever invested in a single year. The FII investment in rupee terms in 2010 is still lower compared with 2009 because of appreciation of the Rupee.

US stocks sputtered Monday following a four -week rally, as concerns over European banks weighed on the financial sector that offset a flurry of deal-making.

A three-notch downgrade to Anglo Irish Bank’s debt by Moody’s Investors Service also may have been weighing on global markets. The bank is expected to need more support from the government.

Fresh M&A activity was reported in the round of deal making in the airline, consumer products and retail sectors, but failed to egg on the markets.

Selling intensified in the final half hour of trading, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing the day 48 points lower at 10,812. The S&P 500 shed 6 points at 1142, while the Nasdaq declined 11 points at 2369.

The saving grace was that the market breadth was evenly balanced and volumes were light.

The increased uncertainty likely contributed to gold prices that inched closer to the $1,300-an-ounce mark. The December gold contract settled at $ 1298.6 an ounce.

Meanwhile, the dollar was trading lower against a basket of currencies, with the dollar index down by 0.1%, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury note strengthening 24/32 and diluting the yield to 2.522%.

In commodity markets, November crude settled slightly higher at $ 76.52 a barrel

Daily Technical Analysis – 23rd Oct 09

admin — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 04:03:05 +0000

The upper trading targets are placed at 17197-17467 (SENSEX) & 5095-5166 (NIFTY). The lower supports are placed at 16337-16080-15962 (SENSEX) & 4860-4775-4752 (NIFTY).

Technical view for Thursday, 24th September, 2009.

The markets have shown some fatigue after a sustained up move and thus have taken a breather after hitting the psychological level of 5000 (Nifty). However, their remains strength on the charts and thus the trading bias is on the long side. One can trade stock specific and use dips to go long.

The upper trading targets are placed at 17197-17467 (SENSEX) & 5095-5166 (NIFTY).

The lower supports are placed at 16337-16080-15962 (SENSEX) & 4860-4775-4752 (NIFTY).

Market strategy: Deepak Mohoni 11 June 09

admin — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 04:20:09 +0000

Market strategy: Deepak Mohoni: Trade Nifty with stop loss at 4,620. Stop loss for June Futures at 4,630. Don’t take fresh positions. Bajaj Hindustan showed good moves yesterday with high volumes. Good for day trading or even short-term holding.

Free Intraday Tips 11 june 09

Market Outlook – 9 April 09

admin — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 03:45:43 +0000

Indian stocks have risen sharply with taking support from global positive rally, this rally increase hopes to sweep dark cloud global economic recession .

SENSEX closing 10742.34 with gains +207.47 and Nifty closing on 3342.95 with gains +86.35

Short Term Stock Tips – 9 Apirl 09 Also Read

Market strategy – 2 April 09

admin — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 04:16:20 +0000

Go short on Nifty with a target of 2975, stop loss at 3080. Short Bharti Airtel with target of Rs 590 and stop loss of Rs 620. Related posts:Market strategy: Deepak Mohoni 11 June 09 Market strategy: Sudarshan Sukhani of Technical Trends Nifty – Market closing strategy Related posts:

Nifty Strategy – 1April 09

admin — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 04:08:18 +0000

Nifty has strong resistance at 3,150. May see base building at 2,900-2,920. Nifty may slip to 2,850. ICICI Bank critically poised, may slip to Rs 290 below Rs 318-320. Related posts:Nifty – Market closing strategy Market strategy: Sudarshan Sukhani of Technical Trends Nifty Outlook & Trading Ideas for Next 15 sessions Related posts:

Technical Analysis – 31 March 09

admin — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 04:21:35 +0000

The upper trading targets are placed at 10200-10235 (SENSEX) & 3132-3175 (NIFTY). The lower supports are placed at 9332 – 9087 – 8841 (SENSEX) & 2900-2831-2762 (NIFTY). Buy in the range of 2900-2830 (Nifty) with a stop loss below 2760.

Technical view for Tuesday, 31st March, 2009.As expected, we corrected in line with other world markets on profit booking after a very good rally. For today, we could see a trading bounce as the markets corrected quite sharply yesterday. However, after a trading bounce we could witness some more profit booking in the next few sessions. For today, the upside targets are placed at 9752-9895 (Sensex) and 3023-3061 (Nifty).

The upper trading targets are placed at 10200-10235 (SENSEX) & 3132-3175 (NIFTY).

The lower supports are placed at 9332 – 9087 – 8841 (SENSEX) & 2900-2831-2762 (NIFTY).

Buy in the range of 2900-2830 (Nifty) with a stop loss below 2760.

Nifty – Market closing strategy

admin — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 09:48:54 +0000

Nifty has support at 2920 and resistance at 3100-3150. Buy ICSA, medium tgt Rs 157, stop loss Rs 65. Related posts:Nifty Strategy – 1April 09 Market strategy-Sudarshan Sukhani of Technical Trends Market strategy – 2 April 09 Related posts: