Stock Martket BSE » stock analysis

Resistance will be at 16128-16775 – 09 Jan 2012

admin — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 03:10:38 +0000

Support will be at 15743-15482-15358-15135. Resistance will be at 16128-16775.

If the level of 15135 is violated, then obviously the stance will remain the same and the slide will continue with momentum on the downside. In that case, the slide will continue towards 13500 or below as we have been discussing in earlier issues.

Hold short positions with a stop loss of 16100 and look to cover them at 15743 or below as the opportunity arises. Buy above 16100 with the low of the day as stop loss or 15358 whichever is lower. Subsequently, exit at 16519-16854. Sell on fall below 15100 with the high of the week at the point of breakdown.

Daily Technical Analysis – 31 March 2011

admin — Thu, 31 Mar 2011 03:40:26 +0000

Europe shares hit 3-week closing high; CAC was up 0.92%, DAX up 1.77% and FTSE up 0.27%.

CBOE VIX ended down 2.5% at 17.71.

Alert: Irish banks stress test results are expected today.

US economic news:

ADP Employment suggests that private payrolls increased by 201,000 in March while market expected increase of 210,000.

Currencies:

Dollar was down 35 bps versus Euro at 1.4136. Yen was down 7 bps versus USD at 82.89.

Commodities:

May crude oil contract was down 0.5% at USD 104.27/barrel. April gold contract went up 0.5% at USD 1423.8/ounce. May silver contract gained 1.4% at USD 37.51/ounce. May natural gas contract rose 2.1% at USD 4.36 per MMBtu.

Kernex Microsystems – Stock Investments

admin — Fri, 22 May 2009 02:51:32 +0000

Kernex Microsystems is engaged into manufacturing of Networked Anti-Collision Devices (ACD) for Indian Railways and had installed over 2,500 kms. in Indian Railways since 04 – 05.

· These ACDs are supplied by the company to Railways, through Konkan Railways, under its exclusive Technology and Production Tie-up.

· Railways Board, after review of ACD Pilot Project in North Frontier Railways, set by the company, declared it to be completed, commissioned and proved to be successful. According to Railway Safety Plan, ACD Systems will be deployed in the entire Indian Railway Network by 2013 and survey over 10,000 kms is in progress.

· Railway Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav has cleared deploying thee ACDs under Railway Safety Plan, in its 08 – 09 budget. This was pending for quite a long time, which finally saw light of the day.

· The total outlay by Railways on these ACDs, till 2013 – 14 is estimated to be about Rs.3,500 crores, taking cost escalation and design changes into consideration and for about 56,000 kms., covering all routes of Indian Railways. So, annual flow of orders to the company, could be about Rs.400 crores.

· For FY 07, total income of the company was at Rs.29.68 crores, of which Rs.6.90 crores came via bank interest and provisions written back. Due to this, EPS for the year, was at Rs.5.61. The income of Rs.21.80 crores from its core business is purely of maintenance of ACDs supplied earlier by the company, which is about 15% annually, of cost of equipment.

· Even in first nine months of FY 08, total operational income of about Rs.15 crores is purely from AMC of ACDs supplied by the company to Railways, earlier. Even this activity would give an EPS of about Rs.5 to the company.

· The present paid-up equity of the company is at Rs.12.50 crores, which got raised due to 1 bonus share, issued on every 10 shares held, by the company. Of this, promoters holding is 58% while 42% is held by the public.

· The EBITDA margin of the company on these ACDs are over 40% and costs about 35% to 40% against similar devices, if imported. Also, any supply of ACDs gives an assured AMC of 15%, every year, to the company, on equipments supplied. ACDs supplied by the company in 05 – 06 is enabling the company to earn an AMC revenue of Rs.20 crores, annually, by which EPS of about Rs.5 is being earned.

· Once this supply will start to Railways, the performance of the company, would come in new orbit with EBITDA in excess of Rs.50 crores, depending upon the quantum of order flow from Railways. Even bottomline could be close to Rs.25 crores, giving an EPS of Rs.20 as the company has least interest and depreciation burden.

· The company is also aiming to capture the major segments of medium to light density Rail routes in developing countries, as the ACD system is efficiently suited and cost effective. The company is hopeful of securing ACD orders from countries like Egypt, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, Indonesia, Cambodia and Vietnam.

· Even continuous upgradation keep happening in ACDs as R&D is the main focus of the company. This would keep demand of improved version products in place, which shall assure continuous and assured business to the company.

· The company also makes Advanced Railway Signal Systems, for which major trust has been given by Railways in its recent budget. This could be another area of growth for the company.

· The company is also developing “Multi Section Digital Axle Counter” in collaboration with Altpro, Zerob, Croatia and Indian Railways has requirement of about Rs.600 crores, in the next five year for this product.

· The company also makes Auto Driving Devices for Metro Railway, which would be developed once Indian Market for the same is developed.

· The company is a debt free company and Rs.99 crores, raised by the company from IPO is still available with the company.

· With expectation of these Railway orders, working of the company would improve sharply from FY 09. Since the sector enjoys a very high PE multiple, share had potential to cross Rs.500 mark in the next 10 – 12 months. Long term prospects are extremely bright.

· Share at Rs.220 is a safe bet which can give a return of 100% in the next 12 months and a consistent return of 40% to 50%, annualized, over the next 2 – 3 years.

Free Intraday Cash Tips for 28th April 09

admin — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 03:04:16 +0000

532884 ( REFEX REFRIG)

Action	Trigger Price	Stop Loss	Target 1	Target 2
BUY ABOVE	23.7	23.4	24.7	25.5
S.SELL BELOW	23	23.6	22	20.5

532022 ( FILAT FASH)

Action	Trigger Price	Stop Loss	Target 1	Target 2
BUY ABOVE	81	80	83	84.5
S.SELL BELOW	79.5	80.5	78.5	76

532432 ( UNITD SPR)

Action	Trigger Price	Stop Loss	Target 1	Target 2
BUY ABOVE	742	737	760	782
S.SELL BELOW	733	739	720	695

Free Day Trading Stock Tips – 27 April 09- BSE India

admin — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 23:33:35 +0000

516078 ( JUMBO BAG)

Action	Trigger Price	Stop Loss	Target 1	Target 2
BUY ABOVE	21.5	21.2	22.5	23.3
S.SELL BELOW	21	21.4	20.4	19.5

532629 ( MCNALLYB)

Action	Trigger Price	Stop Loss	Target 1	Target 2
BUY ABOVE	50.5	50	52	53.6
S.SELL BELOW	49.5	50.2	48.5	46.7

512233 ( JAYBHARA TEX)

Action	Trigger Price	Stop Loss	Target 1	Target 2
BUY ABOVE	226	223	234	240
S.SELL BELOW	222	224	218	210

Stock Advice On Mangalam and JK Cement

admin — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 03:07:42 +0000

SMALL CAP
ICICI Securities & PINC

JK CEMENT CMP: Rs 59
JK Cement’s 3 mt greenfield plant at Karnataka is likely to be commissioned in Q1FY10, which will increase grey cement capacity by 68% to 7.4 mt. Also, with softening interest rates, a sharp decline in pet coke prices and firming up of cement prices in key markets, the macroeconomic conditions of JK Cement have improved significantly.

MANGALAM CEMENT CMP: Rs 81
MCL recently made an entry in the western market by tapping Pune in Maharashtra. It caters to the northern part of the country. The capacity addition of 0.5mn tonne following modification and upgradation was completed in September 2008 and the full impact of the same is expected to be realized from Q4FY09.

Stock Advice On Prism and Madras Cement

admin — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 03:05:21 +0000

MID CAP
Anagram StockBroking & Emkay Global Financial Services
PRISM CEMENT CMP: Rs 29
We expect another 100 mt of capacity to be added over three years. The company has placed orders for core equipment with F L Smidth & Co AS, Denmark, and Koeppern, Germany, for the brown-field expansion at Satna and has finalised civil, mechanical & other contracts. It has targeted the commissioning of the plant in September 2010.

MADRAS CEMENT CMP: Rs 84
We expect Madras Cement to be the prime beneficiary of 60% drop in global coal prices in the subsequent quarters because it imports 70% of its coal requirements from abroad. We are likely to revise upward our FY2010 earnings estimates to reflect benefits on lower freight & packaging cost, lower coal prices and revised excise duty.

Stock Advice On Grasim and Ultra Tech

admin — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 03:01:23 +0000

LARGE CAP
Sharekhan & Karvy Stock Broking
GRASIM INDUSTRIES CMP: Rs 1,803

The management expects a 10% volume growth in FY2010 over FY2009. Grasim has raised cement price by Rs 5 to Rs 8 per bag in the past couple of months (February 2008–March 2009) and is expected to sustain the higher price. On the other hand, investment in captive power plant (CPP) will bring down the power cost.

ULTRATECH CEMENT CMP: Rs 566
It has an installed capacity of 19.5 mt, which will rise to 23.1 mt in Q1FY10. The company is in the last leg of its capex plan to the tune of Rs 4,470 crore for increasing capacity by 4.9 mt. The volume growth, which is higher than the industry’s growth, and cost reduction by Rs 288/t would increase its market share by 110 bps.

Free Trading Tips BSE for 24th April 09

admin — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 02:11:54 +0000

531882 ( KWALITY DAIR)

Action	Trigger Price	Stop Loss	Target 1	Target 2
BUY ABOVE	123	121	132	139
S.SELL BELOW	120	124	116	106

526299 ( MPHASIS LTD)

Action	Trigger Price	Stop Loss	Target 1	Target 2
BUY ABOVE	225	222.5	235	245
S.SELL BELOW	221	224	214	204

531816 ( PANORAM UNI)

Action	Trigger Price	Stop Loss	Target 1	Target 2
BUY ABOVE	238	235.5	243	252
S.SELL BELOW	234	237	229	222

Stock Advice On Infosys Technologies Ltd

admin — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 13:14:07 +0000

Stock Advice On Infosys Technologies Ltd. – INDIABULLS

near-term outlook
Infosys Technologies Limited (Infosys)’s result for FY09 was in line with our estimates. For Q4’09, Infosys reported a decline of 2.6% qoq to Rs. 56.4 bn in its top line largely due to increasing pricing pressure and sluggish volume growth, partially offset by the depreciation in the rupee against the dollar. Besides, revenues in the USD terms went down by ~4.5% qoq. Other than this, weak operational performance and increase in the SG&A expenses led
to fall in the EBITDA margin by 154 bps qoq to 33.6%.Price erosion is inevitable
Billing rate for the quarter went down 2% and 4.2% qoq for onsite and offshore, respectively, indicating that clients renegotiated their contracts and new deals were signed at lower pricing. In our view, this trend is likely to continue, considering that the large clients from the developed economies are likely to demand price cuts. Thus, we expect billing to decline by 2–3% per quarter for the next 4–5 quarters.

Client engagement to help in the medium term
Infosys is focusing on client engagement and has guided to increase its selling & marketing efforts in the near term. Consequently, we expect SG&A expenses to increase by ~5% in FY10, which will strain the margins in the near term. However, this can benefit the Company in winning large deals in the medium term.

Potential strategic acquisitions to strengthen its positioning
Infosys has a strong balance sheet position along with a huge liquidity advantage in the current weak market scenario as it maintains a cash balance of USD 2.2 bn. In our view, the Company can use cash for strategic acquisitions in the next 12–15 months, which will strengthen its service offerings. Moreover, potential acquisitions in high end services such as consulting and system integration space can help to revive the margins.